$1 Boxes for Action; or, How to Kill Time Between Races
As soon as those first prices go up on the board, you are looking for discrepancies between your odds and those set by your opponents. Steven Crist, “Crist…
FCM Blog
Crist on Value: Asking the wrong question.
This is the way we all have been conditioned to think: Find the winner, then bet. Know your horses and the money will take care of itself. Stare…
Time to Trade Swatch Group and Other Emerging Opportunities
With an an advantage betting edge of 3% following a drop in excess of 3σ from expected value, Swatch Group is a buy. Its current discount to expected…
$BW $CMP — Advantage Plays
We traded out of Wheat ($WEAT) this morning and into Babcock & Wilcox ($BW) and Compass Minerals ($CMP). Babcock sports a 14% edge and a discount to expected…
$CRSXF — Corsa Coal (Updated)
We are buying Corsa Coal, which currently sports a betting edge of 9% and a discount to expected value of 22%. Corsa has closed >3σ from its expected…
Trading Brief
$HUI enjoyed a 3σ move from expected value from 3/4-3/11 and hovers 2σ from its expected value of ~$215. Mean-reversion is likely in the near-term. $HUI exhibits price…
Selling into strength…
We sold aggressively into this week’s breakout in gold and pop in silver, boosting cash reserves to ~50%. Gold has risen over 3 standard deviations from its statistical…
$HUI, etc. — Gold, Silver and Platinum Stocks an Aggressive Buy
Our cash balance is at its lowest level in years as we aggressively buy shares in gold, silver and platinum miners. The Amex Gold Bugs Index has flashed…
$UNG : Buying Back Gas, Etc.
With an edge of 1.3% and a discount-to-expected value (DEV) of 11%, I bought back Natural Gas this morning. We sold our stakes in GDX, GDXJ and PLTM…
Zephaniah 2
1 Gather yourselves, even gather you, O nation not worthy to be loved, 2 Before the decree come forth, and ye be as chaff that passeth in a day, and before the fierce wrath of…
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