2021 TOTE BOARD | RACE 5
SYMBOL PRICE UK ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY MONEYLINE CURRENT DISCOUNT EXIT DATE IVPAF 9.23 5/3 38% +167 36% AG 23.08 8/5 38% +160 39% 2/1/21 AGI 16.39 7/3 30%…
Category: How We Bet
Value Betting Opportunities: An Update
1.) The Signal-Discount Spread, which was developed in parallel with the Value Betting Engine (VBE), has been deprecated; the VBE formula now stands alone. 2.) — 3.) Value…
You aren’t betting horses…
Just like at the track, when betting stocks by buying shares, you are betting against everyone else. But that’s where the similarity with horse betting ends. The payouts…
How We Bet, Part V: Exits
We design our exits with a tool called the Dutch Tree, a.k.a. The Fahy-Biederman Exit Method for Common Stocks. See here: https://www.fahy.co/fahy-biederman-exit-method-for-common-stocks/ It’s the next-to-last step of our…
How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?
In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What…
How We Bet — Part III: The Value Bet Demystified
In Parts I and II, we covered our internal approach to Value Betting stocks, but perhaps an understanding of ‘Value’ as it pertains to stock betting still eludes…
How We Bet — Part II: Coeur Mining Case Study
When betting, we look for an intersection between value and good odds. Value, you will recall from Part I, is determined by identifying a clear discrepancy between benchmark…
How We Bet — Part I
We do a lot of handicapping, but we acknowledge that won’t make us better traders. The value of handicapping ends with stock picking. Once stocks are picked and…
Nothing left to load.