Red Letter Day for FCM
For a bettor in possession of accurate probability estimates which differ from the public estimates, the more specific the bet, the higher the advantage. Bill Benter Our Odds…
Category: Business
Bill Benter: No Guarantees
…it is difficult to know how great an edge can be achieved at a particular track until one develops a model for that track and tests it, which…
How We Bet, Part V: Exits
We design our exits with a tool called the Dutch Tree, a.k.a. The Fahy-Biederman Exit Method for Common Stocks. See here: https://www.fahy.co/fahy-biederman-exit-method-for-common-stocks/ It’s the next-to-last step of our…
$HUI : Know Your Odds
PRICE ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY DECIMAL MONEYLINE 265.22 2/9 81.82% 1.22 -450 291.26 5/6 54.55% 1.83 -120 333.40 15/7 31.82% 3.14 +214 404.85 10/1 9.09% 11.00 +1000 A few…
$SBGL: Sibanye — The End of the Road
We never imagined riding Sibanye-Stillwater to a price-point that exceeded our initial target on the back of Palladium, but that’s what happened. Palladium, however, is not a trade…
How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?
In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What…
How We Bet — Part III: The Value Bet Demystified
In Parts I and II, we covered our internal approach to Value Betting stocks, but perhaps an understanding of ‘Value’ as it pertains to stock betting still eludes…
How We Bet — Part II: Coeur Mining Case Study
When betting, we look for an intersection between value and good odds. Value, you will recall from Part I, is determined by identifying a clear discrepancy between benchmark…
How We Bet — Part I
We do a lot of handicapping, but we acknowledge that won’t make us better traders. The value of handicapping ends with stock picking. Once stocks are picked and…
URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!
Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And…
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