Benter’s Rules and How We Apply Them
To be truly viable, a system must provide a large number of high advantage betting opportunities in order that a sufficient amount of expected profit can be generated.…
Category: Business
25 March Morning Line
NAME ABE DEV ODDS MONEYLINE IMPLIED PROBABILITY AEHR 11% 38% 1.33 -307 75% BCE — 5% 1.45 -220 69% BF/B — 8% 1.32 -312 94% CMP 18% 47%…
Last Bets of the Week
Brown-Forman, Under-Armour and Destination XL Group are our final bets of the week. Brown-Forman, with an advantage betting edge of 1.4% and a discount to expected value (DEV)…
$1 Boxes for Action; or, How to Kill Time Between Races
As soon as those first prices go up on the board, you are looking for discrepancies between your odds and those set by your opponents. Steven Crist, “Crist…
Crist on Value: Asking the wrong question.
This is the way we all have been conditioned to think: Find the winner, then bet. Know your horses and the money will take care of itself. Stare…
Time to Trade Swatch Group and Other Emerging Opportunities
With an an advantage betting edge of 3% following a drop in excess of 3σ from expected value, Swatch Group is a buy. Its current discount to expected…
$BW $CMP — Advantage Plays
We traded out of Wheat ($WEAT) this morning and into Babcock & Wilcox ($BW) and Compass Minerals ($CMP). Babcock sports a 14% edge and a discount to expected…
$CRSXF — Corsa Coal (Updated)
We are buying Corsa Coal, which currently sports a betting edge of 9% and a discount to expected value of 22%. Corsa has closed >3σ from its expected…
Trading Brief
$HUI enjoyed a 3σ move from expected value from 3/4-3/11 and hovers 2σ from its expected value of ~$215. Mean-reversion is likely in the near-term. $HUI exhibits price…
Selling into strength…
We sold aggressively into this week’s breakout in gold and pop in silver, boosting cash reserves to ~50%. Gold has risen over 3 standard deviations from its statistical…
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