$1 Boxes for Action; or, How to Kill Time Between Races
As soon as those first prices go up on the board, you are looking for discrepancies between your odds and those set by your opponents. Steven Crist, “Crist…
As soon as those first prices go up on the board, you are looking for discrepancies between your odds and those set by your opponents. Steven Crist, “Crist…
This is the way we all have been conditioned to think: Find the winner, then bet. Know your horses and the money will take care of itself. Stare…
With an an advantage betting edge of 3% following a drop in excess of 3σ from expected value, Swatch Group is a buy. Its current discount to expected…
We traded out of Wheat ($WEAT) this morning and into Babcock & Wilcox ($BW) and Compass Minerals ($CMP). Babcock sports a 14% edge and a discount to expected…
We are buying Corsa Coal, which currently sports a betting edge of 9% and a discount to expected value of 22%. Corsa has closed >3σ from its expected…
$HUI enjoyed a 3σ move from expected value from 3/4-3/11 and hovers 2σ from its expected value of ~$215. Mean-reversion is likely in the near-term. $HUI exhibits price…
We sold aggressively into this week’s breakout in gold and pop in silver, boosting cash reserves to ~50%. Gold has risen over 3 standard deviations from its statistical…
Our cash balance is at its lowest level in years as we aggressively buy shares in gold, silver and platinum miners. The Amex Gold Bugs Index has flashed…
With an edge of 1.3% and a discount-to-expected value (DEV) of 11%, I bought back Natural Gas this morning. We sold our stakes in GDX, GDXJ and PLTM…
We bought First Majestic at US $5.63, International Tower Hill Mines at US $0.44, Sibanye-Stillwater at US $6.57. Each, oddly, sports a Discount to Expected Value of 34%.…
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