This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities:
y = (Period - (P(R3)|P(S3)))/(P(R3)|P(S3))
Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months:
9 Months | ||
---|---|---|
Level | Price | Conditional Probability |
R3 | 9.38 | 33% |
R4 | 10.84 | 3% |
R5 | 13.19 | 0% |
Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.