Crist on Value: Asking the wrong question.

This is the way we all have been conditioned to think: Find the winner, then bet. Know your horses and the money will take care of itself. Stare at the past performances long enough and the winner will jump off the page.

The problem is that we’re asking the wrong question. The issue is not which horse in the race is the most likely winner, but which horses are offering odds that exceed their actual chances of victory.

Steven Crist, “Crist on Value”