1.) Recognize the difference between picking horses and making wagers in which you have an edge. The only path to consistent profit is to exploit the discrepancy between the true likelihood of an outcome and the odds being offered.
| NAME | ABE | DEV | ODDS | MONEYLINE | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRPN | 2.5% | 31% | 1.45 | -223 | 70% |
| CMP | 4.6% | 27% | 1.35 | -283 | 74% |
| INFY | 2.8% | 7% | 1.44 | -228 | 69% |
| ISSC | 3% | 11% | 1.31 | -327 | 77% |
| KEP | 1.68% | 9% | 1.48 | -206 | 67% |
2.) You are playing only against the other bettors at the track, not against the game or the house. Although they do a pretty good job on the whole, your opponents make more than enough mistakes for you to win.
3.) Multiple bets can make apparently valueless races* highly playable, and can multiply the existing value in a race because of the opportunity to capitalize on more than one discrepancy on the board.
*Where a “race” is any given trading day.
