Overall Odds
Deep Yellow has 11/1 odds (8% implied probability) of rising to US $2.42 before the end of FY21, while it has 16/7 odds (30% implied probability) of rising to US $1.35 in FY22.
Conditional Probability
Deep Yellow has a 38% conditional implied probability (5/3 odds) of rising to US $2.42 in FY21. I will abstain from calculating FY22 conditional probabilities until the outcome of FY21 is known.
Medium-term Scenario
I expect Deep Yellow to reach US $6.83 by the end of FY23 — a level with a conditional probability of 50% in a secular bull market.
