| Long-Term Price Case | $1,700/oz. Au |
| Flagship Project | Kilgore |
| Ownership | 100% (Royalty-Free) |
| Indicated Resource | 825K ozs. |
| Shares Outstanding | 175M |
| Market Cap | $12,057,500 |
| Average Annual Production | 111,700 ozs. |
| Recovery | Crush: 82%/ROM: 50% |
| Payable Product | 558,700 ozs. |
| LoM | 5 Years |
| True All-in Costs (TAIC) | $1,239/oz. |
| Gross Revenue | $949,790,000 |
| Total Operating Costs | ($435,570,000) |
| Operating Cash Flow (EBITDA) | $514,220,000 |
| Income Taxes | ($159,408,200) |
| Total Capital Costs | ($97,460,000) |
| Net Income | $257,351,800 |
| Net Profit Margin | 27% |
| Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) | 73% |
| MTQ Score (Higher is Better) | 0.4 |
| True Value | $1.47/sh. |
| True Value Discount (TVD) | 95% |
| Cash Flow Multiple | 5x |
| Average Net Annual Cash Flow | $51,493,700 |
| Future Market Cap | $257,468,500 |
| Future Market Cap Growth | 2,035% |
| Target | $1.47/sh. |
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
The kind of arrangements about which we daydream don’t happen too often, but there’s no practical reason why some of them couldn’t. For instance, we’d like to see an Otis/Bullfrog business combination.
I try to avoid as much modernist lingo as possible, including the catchword, ‘synergy.’ Which is to say, I don’t necessarily think an Otis/Bullfrog business combination would necessarily prove ‘synergistic.’ Rather, a single entity could better benefit from an economy of scale, enabling it to quickly fund additional inorganic growth.
I have also imagined an interesting three-way merger: Otis + Bullfrog + Paramount.
2 Comments
Do you own shares in Otis Gold?
Hi, Mike,
We do not own it.
Here’s the updated list of stocks we own:
https://www.fahy.co/nuchem-international-catalyst-fund/