FCM Weekly Totalizator : Example
As Advantage Players, we place bets on issues with Positive Dynamic Value (+DV); where the market has overpriced the odds of continued loss; where +DV probability rests on…
Tag: Betting
2021 TOTE BOARD | RACE 5
SYMBOL PRICE UK ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY MONEYLINE CURRENT DISCOUNT EXIT DATE IVPAF 9.23 5/3 38% +167 36% AG 23.08 8/5 38% +160 39% 2/1/21 AGI 16.39 7/3 30%…
You aren’t betting horses…
Just like at the track, when betting stocks by buying shares, you are betting against everyone else. But that’s where the similarity with horse betting ends. The payouts…
$GUYFF : Guyana Goldfields — Raising Stake in Marginal Producer with Fair Odds of Recovery
Odds of recovery to $1.07 over the next 18 months stand at 8/5. In other words, Guyana Goldfields has Moneyline odds of +160, or an Implied Probability of…
How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?
In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What…
How We Bet — Part III: The Value Bet Demystified
In Parts I and II, we covered our internal approach to Value Betting stocks, but perhaps an understanding of ‘Value’ as it pertains to stock betting still eludes…
How We Bet — Part II: Coeur Mining Case Study
When betting, we look for an intersection between value and good odds. Value, you will recall from Part I, is determined by identifying a clear discrepancy between benchmark…
How We Bet — Part I
We do a lot of handicapping, but we acknowledge that won’t make us better traders. The value of handicapping ends with stock picking. Once stocks are picked and…
URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!
Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And…
$CDE: Coeur Mining 2020 Betting Odds
“Your opportunity for profit at the racetrack consists entirely of mistakes that your competition makes in assessing each horse’s probability of winning.” -Steven Crist
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