$HUI enjoyed a 3σ move from expected value from 3/4-3/11 and hovers 2σ from its expected value of ~$215. Mean-reversion is likely in the near-term. $HUI exhibits price elevation from expected value of >3σ a mere 3% of the time and exceeds 2σ ~9% of the time.
Similarly, $GDX has closed >2σ from expected value for 8 days, which is by no means a usual occurrence. That being said, reversion to expected value (EV) almost always soon follows multi-day consolidation at levels >2σ from EV, which stands today at $28.19. $GDX’s premium to EV is 6%.
$SIL is spending its 7th consecutive day >2σ from EV ($24.49). Its current premium to EV is 7%.
We purchased a small 3% discount to EV in Wheat on Friday.
Discounts to EV in the precious metals space are few and far between. We sit at ~50% cash awaiting new opportunities.
Helium Edges and Discounts
| Stock | Betting Edge | Discounts to EV |
|---|---|---|
| RHCFF | -13% | 4% |
| DMEHF | -11% | 5% |
| FHELF | -27% | 12% |
| TTLHF | -23% | 37% |
| HLOGF | -36% | 6% |
No current edges in the helium space, but discounts to EV remain.
